Solar radiation forecasting with WRF model in the Iberian Peninsula
L. Martin1*, E. Lorenz2, A. Sood2, L. F. Zarzalejo1, K. Suselj2,J. Polo1, A. Navarro1, R.
1 CIEMAT, Department of Energy, Av. Complutense n°22, Madrid, 28040, Spain
2 Oldenburg University, Germany Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory Energy Meteorology Group
3 IrSOLaV, Calle Santiago Grisolia (PTM) 2, Tres Cantos, 28045, Madrid, Spain
* Corresponding Author, luis. martin@ciemat. es
Although considerable effort has been done to make use of solar energy efficiently from industrial revolution, expecting fossil fuels would run out in the future, only minimal resources have been directed towards forecasting incoming energy at ground level. However, the necessity to have forecasting models which could optimize the integration of solar thermal power and photovoltaic into electric grid within different sources of electric power generation will grow up as they gain recognition as an energetic resource in the near future. In this work an evaluation of ERA-40 reanalysis data from ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model is done over 40 stations from Spanish National Radiometrical Network which belongs to the Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The evaluaton is done in a hourly and daily resolution just for the next time step in the case of WRF evaluation and for daily resolution in the case of ERA-40 data. The results from WRF model are compared with predictions from European Center for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF).
Keywords: EuroSun 2008, proceedings, formatting guidelines, styles
Although considerable effort has been done to make use of solar energy efficiently from industrial revolution, expecting fossil fuels would run out in the future, only minimal resources have been directed towards forecasting incoming energy at ground level [1]. However, the necessity to have forecasting models which could optimize the integration of solar thermal power and photovoltaic into electric grid within different sources of electric power generation will grow up as they gain recognition as an energetic resource in the near future.
Photovoltaic and solar thermoelectric power are main sources of solar energy for electricity generation. Currently the potential market is huge and its development is being supported by agreements in Kyoto protocol and by progressive series of regulations regarding green energy (feed-in tariff) established in several countries like Spain and German [2]. In the case of Spain, current legislation (Royal Decree 436/2004, 12th of March) allows to minimize investment risks to promoters and to contribute opening up great perspectives to solar energy development.
Energy stock market participation is regulated by two basic rules: on the one hand it is necessary to predict the amount of energy which will be produced, up to 72 hours before, and on the other hand deviations of energy produced compared to programmed one are strongly penalized.
In this work a skill evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and ERA-40 reanalysis data from ECMWF is done over 40 stations from Spanish National Radiometrical Network which belongs to the Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The prediction is done in a hourly and daily resolution just for the next time step. The results from WRF model are compared with predictions from European Center for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF).
