THE ECONOMETRICS OF MACROECONOMIC MODELLING

The Incomplete Competition Model

The dynamic version of the ICM is presented in Chapters 5 and 6 and an example of empirical estimation is discussed in greater detail within the frame­work of a small econometric model for Norway in Chapter 9 (Section 9.2). We shall therefore be brief in the outline of the ICM for the Euro area; details are given in Jansen (2004).

The econometric approach follows a stepwise procedure, where the outcome can be seen as a product of interpretation and formal testing: we first consider an information set of wages, prices, and an appropriate selection of conditioning variables like the output gap, unemployment, productivity, import prices, etc. It turns out that the data rejects the long-run restrictions from theory in this case. Only when we model the long-run steady-state equations with prices and unit labour costs as the endogenous variables do we find empirical support for the theory restrictions. The final outcome is steady-state equations of the following restricted form:

ulct = pt — wut, (8.10)

pt = (1 - ф)иС + фpit + t3t, (8.11)

where t3t is indirect taxes. We note that only two parameters, w and ф, enter unrestrictedly in (8.10) and (8.11).

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THE ECONOMETRICS OF MACROECONOMIC MODELLING

Inflation equations derived from the P*-model

The P*-model is presented in Section 8.5.4. The basic variables of the model are calculated in much the same way for Norway as for the Euro area in the previous …

Forecast comparisons

Both models condition upon the rate of unemployment ut, average labour productivity at, import prices pit, and GDP mainland output yt. In order to investigate the dynamic forecasting properties we …

The NPCM in Norway

Consider the NPCM (with forward term only) estimated on quarterly Norwegian data[65]: Apt = 1.06 Apt+1 + 0.01 wst + 0.04 Apit + dummies (7.21) (0.11) (0.02) (0.02) x2(10) = …

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